Royal Pain in the Arse

Sandwich, England and the Royal St. George’s Golf Club welcome golfers from around the world this week for the 140th edition of the Open Championship.

Strokes gained putting, birdies, bogey avoidance, and of course scrambling will all be key stats to look out for this week. And per the usual for this major… if the wind whips up, look out, it’ll get real interesting. Forecasts show that the winds could be rather brisk Thursday morning & Friday afternoon, so the tee time draw just became a factor as well. With such a crap-shoot in store, I think it’s smart to limit exposure.

• Nick Watney | Under 25.5 – The best Team USA has got this week, and my semi-darkhorse pick to win. Just hope he doesn’t get screwed with the morning/afternoon tee time draw.
• Lee Westwood  | Under 13.5 – Just plain rock solid year and recent history at the Open. Plus, he has the afternoon/morning tee time draw which looks like an advantage.
• Webb Simpson (-115) vs. Van Pelt – Hunch play for the Raleigh native’s first go-round across the pond.
• Justin Rose  (-170) vs. Els – Would have taken this anyway even with the weak odds, but there’s a tee time advantage here as well.

A Tradition Unlike Any Other

Goosebumps right? Always a spectacle, the best golfers in the world converge on the hallowed grounds of Augusta National for this major rite of spring.  Here are my three picks to win for the week , and believe me, this was tough as hell to narrow down…

• Phil Mickelson | 6:1 – It’s impossible to ignore his track record here, and obviously he’s playing well coming in.  Hits the ball high and works it right to left, which gives him a distinct advantage.  The modern day David Sims could easily bring home his fourth green jacket.
• Nick Watney | 15:1 –  As mentioned before here, his stats are off the charts and he has never finished outside the top 20 at Augusta. Playing better than ever.
• Justin Rose | 35:1 – Has never missed a cut here and is coming off back-to-back top 5 finishes.  Iron play has improved dramatically over past season or so.
• Also considered: Mahan, Kuchar, Casey

Tournament Matchups

• Watney -130 vs. Johnson – Soul Patch is way too errant off the tee, and his best finish here is a T30. Take the left coast guy this week. [Update: upon review, this was a 1st Round matchup that I bet on…a mistake that worked out nicely.]
• Furyk -115 vs. Goosen – More of a hunch pick based on recent play, but Furyk has cashed 12 out of 14 times here.
• Baddeley -120 vs. Fowler – Badds’ iron play is significantly better than years past plus he’s playing well, and Fowler has never teed it up in the Masters.
• Moore -140 vs. Els – Moore has a great track record in the Masters, and Els couldn’t hit the Grand Canyon from 5 feet with his flatstick.
• Casey -115 vs. Kaymer – Das German is 0-3 in cuts made here, and as mentioned above I do like Casey this week. I’m honestly shocked at the odds Kaymer is getting in these matchups.
• Kim +110 vs. Stricker – I don’t like Stricker’s inconsistent play here (50% made cuts) and Kim is coming off a great week in Houston, plus a 3rd place finish last year has me really liking his value here.

Palmer’s Playground

*UPDATE: Laird = WIN*

The PGA Tour heads to balmy Orlando for the weekend to face one of the tougher courses on the circuit, Arnold Palmer’s course at Bay Hill Club & Lodge. Precision is a big key to success, so total driving and GIR stats are a good barometer for success. For what it’s worth, consider me a member of Arnie’s Army and not Jack’s Pack.

• Hunter Mahan | 20:1 – Coming off a T9 last week in Tampa and simply looks like an all around great candidate to win here.
• Justin Rose | 30:1 – Great iron player, played well last week with a T5, and in the upper echelon in stat categories.
• Martin Laird | 40:1 – Same finish as Rose last week for the Scotsman followed up a T10 at the WGC, and also sitting high in pertinent stats. [Winning. Again. That’s back to back hot fire picks for those keeping score.]

• Chris Couch -110 vs. Spencer Levin – Levin is actually favored and admittedly playing well, but I like Couch’s par 4 performance and he had a T4 here last season.
• Martin Laird -120 vs. Ernie Els – The Big Easy comes in to defend his title, but a lackluster 2011 and the fact that he just can’t putt has me taking Laird.

Who else to keep an eye on? Chad Campbell. Don’t think he has a chance to win, but a great pick to contend / post a solid finish.