Rubber City Monster

A stacked field heads to Akron for the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational at Firestone Country Club. The South Course, affectionately known as The Monster, hosts the event and requires  consistent total driving and the ability to hit greens from anywhere.  I’m looking at a lot of dogs this week, and putting my 10-1 record over the past two tournaments on the line. Here are the picks:

• Lee Westwood (-115) vs. Donald – Westwood dominates this place, and Donald has struggled mightily to hit greens recently.
• Bill Haas (-115) vs. Choi – Haas has ALL of the stats this week. Great iron player from all distances and 14th on tour in total driving.
• Gary Woodland (-105) vs. Watson – Woodland is playing lights out, hits great long irons, and drives the golf ball just as well as Bubba.
• Adam Scott (-105) vs. Garcia – The Aussie now has Stevie Williams on the bag full time, and that will definitely help out at Firestone. Oh, and Scott had a T9 here last year, is playing well, and ranks 17th in total driving.
• Bo Van Pelt (even) vs. Garcia – Mini upset special of the week. Not trying to pick on El Nino who could contend, but Van Pelt is one of the best drivers of the golf ball on tour and is has top 15s in each of his last six tournaments on American soil.
• Hunter Mahan (+140) vs. Donald – Super upset special of the week (and probably the whole season). Mahan’s track record here is great (three straight top 10s including the win last year), and even though is form isn’t outstanding coming in he sets up much better than Donald.

Gambling oddity of the week: Tiger Woods is 14:1 to win, but his finishing position bet is o/u 30.5…

Conquering Congressional

The national championship. In (near) the District. Get ready folks, major #2 of the year is upon us and lands at Congressional Country Club this time around.

The Blue Course underwent renovations in ’09 and will play much firmer and much faster than it did for the AT&T National tournament in the years before, so performances back then should not make a huge impact on who plays well this week. Total driving (with an extra nudge to length), iron play, scrambling, and putting on bentgrass greens will all play a factor this week. As they should… this is the U.S. Open.

Tournament Matchup Bets

• Sergio Garcia  (-115) vs. Scott – Scott hasn’t been playing well at all since his run at Augusta, and has a decent but not great U.S. Open record. El Nino, however, has played well in five of the last seven US Open’s and is playing great golf this season (minus the 11 he took on a hole last week).
• Hunter Mahan (-115) vs. Watney – Basically a toss up on recent form, but Watney’s event record is ugly. Mahan has an excruciatingly close miss at Bethpage on the resume.
• Retief Goosen  (-115) vs. Furyk – Both are solid players in this major, but the unflappable Goose is comes in with much better current play.
• Martin Laird  (-120) vs. Senden – I just think Laird is a sneaky pick this week and Senden’s only recent U.S. Open finish was a T121 last year.
• Charley Hoffman  (-120) vs. Gay – The Hoff hasn’t played in one of these since 2006 (T48) but possesses enough of a decent game to hang around for the weekend. Brian Gay is 0-7 in U.S. Open appearances.
• Sergio Garcia  (-130) vs. Ogilvy – Ge-off won the ’06 edition at Winged Foot, but he WD’ed from the Players last month with a bum shoulder and came in T66 last week.
• Webb Simpson (-135) vs. Yang – This will be Webb’s first U.S. Open, but his stats look great for the course and current form is good. Yang, not so much.
• Matt Kuchar (-145) vs. Kaymer – We all know how Kuch’s game has been this year. Kaymer usually does play well in big events, but his lack of a draw off the tee hurts him here and he’s simply not playing well.

Palmer’s Playground

*UPDATE: Laird = WIN*

The PGA Tour heads to balmy Orlando for the weekend to face one of the tougher courses on the circuit, Arnold Palmer’s course at Bay Hill Club & Lodge. Precision is a big key to success, so total driving and GIR stats are a good barometer for success. For what it’s worth, consider me a member of Arnie’s Army and not Jack’s Pack.

• Hunter Mahan | 20:1 – Coming off a T9 last week in Tampa and simply looks like an all around great candidate to win here.
• Justin Rose | 30:1 – Great iron player, played well last week with a T5, and in the upper echelon in stat categories.
• Martin Laird | 40:1 – Same finish as Rose last week for the Scotsman followed up a T10 at the WGC, and also sitting high in pertinent stats. [Winning. Again. That’s back to back hot fire picks for those keeping score.]

• Chris Couch -110 vs. Spencer Levin – Levin is actually favored and admittedly playing well, but I like Couch’s par 4 performance and he had a T4 here last season.
• Martin Laird -120 vs. Ernie Els – The Big Easy comes in to defend his title, but a lackluster 2011 and the fact that he just can’t putt has me taking Laird.

Who else to keep an eye on? Chad Campbell. Don’t think he has a chance to win, but a great pick to contend / post a solid finish.