Taking My Talents to South Beach

Heat (-4.5): Ever since “Crygate,” when it was reported that LeBron & Co. were reduced to tears after a midseason loss to the Bulls, the Heat have been playing some good basketball.  They are 27-7 after a river ran through it and now playing like we all knew was possible (probable?).  Yes, the Mavs have won 14 straight regular season matchups between the two teams, including both of the games played this season, but neither of those were post-Crygate.  What?  How can grown men crying in the locker room change a season so drastically?  No clue.  But it happened.  Bottom line: there’s just no way I can see the Heatles losing 4 games in this series.  Heat in 6 (-175 to win the series; +350 to win in 6 games).

More Props for Tonight:

Largest Lead of the Game: Under 15 (-140)

Dirk Total Points: Over 26.5 (-140)

Dirk Total Made FTs: Over 7 (-160) – Yes, I know these make terrible odds, but for such a mortal lock, its free money.

Jason Kidd (Points + Assists): Under 16.5 (-105)

DWade – Will he make a 3 pointer?: Yes (-115)

Futures Bet:

Bosh – Total PPG in the series: Under 19 (-140)

They Are Who We Thought They Were!

Heat (+3):  LeBron James has found a way to bottle up the league MVP Derrick Rose.  Without Rose doing it all, the Bulls simply can’t hang with the Heat.  To put it simply, the Heat are who we thought they were.

Looking to Extend

Thunder (+6.5):  Every game in this series has come down to the wire.  I would like to thank the Mavs for coming back from 15 down with 4 minutes to play and ruining my OKC bet in game 4.  However, I’m not ready to give up on my pick to win the West quite yet.  That’s a lot of points and even if the Mavs do take the series tonight, it’ll only be by a couple points.  The Thunder aren’t ready to go home just yet.

Honoring Lord Byron

Professional golfers converge outside Dallas this week to play in the HP Byron Nelson Championship at TPC Four Seasons – Las Colinas, a shorter course with undulating greens. Players should be able to go low this week with great weather predicted.

Finishing Position & Matchup Bets

• Dustin Johnson | Under 25.5 – The South Carolina native has quietly had a pretty strong year, and sets up well for the course as noted by his back-to-back top 10s here.
  
• Dustin Johnson (+120) vs. Kuchar – This is just a ridiculous line. No way should Kuchar be this big of a favorite against someone who plays this track so well. Side note: my pick in this matchup plus the next two went from very slight dogs or pick ’ems to bigger dogs since yesterday. I’m a little baffled.
• Sean O’Hair (+120) vs. Allenby – Another strange one… O’Hair struggled earlier this year but is coming off two straight top 20 finishes and had a T12 here last year. Allenby is playing mediocre golf at best and hasn’t placed in the top 40 here going back to ’04.
• DA Points (+105) vs. Barnes – Ricky’s best finish in last three tournaments? 97th. Best finish in two tries at this tournament? 60th. And yeah, Darren Andrew hasn’t exactly torn it up since his win at Pebble but he’s had back-to-back top 10 finishes in Irving.
• Rory Sabbatini (-135) vs. Crane – Would have been really interesting if these guys were paired together, and I’m betting on this solely because I love Vegas for setting this matchup. However, it’s also important to note that Crane missed the cut by 11 shots last week and Suckatini is one of the favorites to win.

Ditto

Thunder (-4): Sticking to my guns and going with OKC again tonight.  After their victory in Game 2, the Thunder thought they would be able to coast in Game 3, but the Mavs came out and punched them in the mouth, from which they never recovered.  Don’t expect that to happen again tonight.  Also, OKC has still yet to lose back to back games in the playoffs.

Oooooklahoma

OKC (-2.5): Thunder head home after stealing a game in the Big D.  They will come out ready to seize control of the series.  Also, random thought for the day: how is it that the Heat/Bulls played on Wednesday and don’t play again until Sunday, yet the Mavs/Thunder played on Thursday and have their next game on Saturday?  Makes no sense to this guy.

Defense Optional

OKC (+5.5): OK, the title is a bit misleading.  It didn’t matter what defense was played on “The German Shepherd” in Game 1, because his shots were going to go in regardless.  One of the best shooting performances in NBA playoffs history: 12/15 from the field, 24/24 from the line.  Great.  Not going to happen again.  Westbrook couldn’t hit a damn thing and neglected to find the superstar he plays alongside, although Durant still found a way to “quietly” score 40.  Furthermore, OKC hasn’t lost back to back games yet this postseason.  Take it to the bank.

Heatles

Heat (+2.5):  In Game 1, the Heat were caught falling flat on their face after such an emotional win over the C’s.  That won’t be the case in Game 2.  LeBron won’t be held to 15 points again and DWade won’t be held to 18.  All the Heat need to do is match the intensity of the Bulls, which is no easy task, but not impossible.  The Heat can’t afford to fall down 0-2 in the series and will come out treating this with Game 7-like intensity.

Hogan’s Home Turf

The PGA Tour heads to San Antonio this week to smack it around at Colonial. This tournament is the longest running event on tour at the same venue, and the real Hogan’s Alley requires sharp placement off the tee while the Bentgrass greens will reward players who hit their irons well.

Finishing Position & Matchup Bets

• Jason Day | Under 20.5 – Makes his home in Fort Worth and plays at Colonial on the reg. T2 at Augusta and a T6 last week at The Players. Fourth place finish here in ’09.
• Zach Johnson | Under 25.5 – Defending champion comes in playing well after a T6 at Quail Hollow and T12 at Sawgrass. T9 finish in ’09 on the resume as well.
• Brian Gay (-110) vs. Haas – Gay looks great on paper coming in, and while Haas was hot earlier in the year, his only top 25 since mid-FEBRUARY was at the hometown Wells Fargo.
• Martin Laird (-120) vs. Dufner – The sneaky long Scot has five top 10s on the year, including a win, and pulled a T10 finish here last go round.
• Sergio Garcia (-125) vs. Fowler – El Nino is coming off a scorching 65 on Sunday, and the 2001 champ continues to play well.
• Zach Johnson (Even) vs. Kuchar – As much as the Iowa native irks me, he should not be a big underdog here.

Western Conference Finals

Mavs (-6): I’m a bit concerned that the Mavs may be a bit rusty, but for a team with older vets like Jason Kidd and Dirk, rest is more good than bad.  The Thunder had to go 7 games in a physical series against Memphis, so I wouldn’t be surprised if they came out a bit flat tonight.