Durantula

Thunder (+1.5): The Thunder finally solved the Grizzlies’ mystery.  They’ve won two straight and it’ll be three tonight, as they move on to the Western Conference Finals.

Da Bulls

Bulls (-3.5): After the Heat closed out the C’s, the Bulls know they need to go ahead and do the same.  Anything can happen in a game 7, and the Bulls don’t want to find out.  They should take this one in ATL.

Stadium Rock

Another stacked field convenes this week in Ponte Vedra Beach to take part in The Players Championship.  The Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass, Pete Dye’s signature track which was specifically built to host this tournament, requires good placement off the tee followed by a strong knack for GIRs. Tidbit of the week: 27 of the tournament’s 37 winners were previous major champions. And of course, it’s always fun to see the nerves come into play on the infamous #17 island green par 3…  Here are my picks to conquer the unofficial fifth major and hoist the Waterford crystal:

• Phil Mickelson | 15:1 – Has made a ton of cuts in a row here, including a win in 2007. Solid top 10 finish last week in Charlotte despite an ugly Friday.
• Ben Crane | 30:1 – Three consecutive T6 finishes here, and I’m digging his chances. Best GIR stats on tour from the fairway. Side note: could have gone with Adam Scott at these odds.
• Paddy Harrington | 50:1 – This pick is for the newly engaged Acknasty. Finally coming into form and can roll the rock. Oh, and he’s won three majors.

Tournament Matchups & Finishing Position

• Ben Crane (-105) vs. Kuchar – I’d be an idiot to think Kuch won’t at least be around for the weekend, but I like Crane as the underdog in this one for reasons above. *Update – these odds swung heavily towards Kuchar before I got on to make my bets, so made me think and I ended up taking Crane (+110) vs. Tiger.*
• Robert Allenby (-130) vs. McDowell – Allenby finished 2nd here last year which followed a T14 in ’09. GMac hasn’t had a sub 50th place finish since early March. And yeah, he’s won a major but ask Paint what he thinks about that.
• Adam Scott | Under 25.5 – Winner here in ’04 but only two top 10s since. However, playing great golf lately and has rested up since a T2 at Augusta / T23 in San Antonio. *Update – for same reasons above, dumped this pick and jumped on Paddy (-110) vs. Rose for my third selection this week.*

Points

Bulls/Heat over 181: Both of these teams average well over 90 points per game.  Furthermore, three of four of the games in this series have gone over.  I’m taking the trend.

Game 4s

Thunder (+2.5): The Grizzlies are leading this series 2-1, but I expect my pick to win the NBA championship to come out and win this one in Memphis, evening the series up heading back to OKC.

Heat (-1.5): Rondo, West, Shaq, and Paul Pierce are all ailing.  The Celtics are old and the Heat are not.  Bosh will not fall flat again in this game.  My East pick continues to roll.

Run for the Roses

A wide open fastest two minutes in sports is expected this year, and TDD can’t be more excited. Per the (somewhat) usual for my posts, I’m shying away from the favorite – in this case, Dialed In, who will have to deal with traffic coming out of post 8.  Here are some horses to consider:

Santiva | 22:1 – A previous winner among the twin spires and a solid pick at these odds. Coming off a terrible 9th place finish is his last race, but otherwise has never finished worse than third. I will probably be taking this 3 year old colt to show.

Pants On Fire | 16:1 – Horse with early speed and runs well on wet tracks. Note the 50% chance of rain tomorrow in Louisville. Has beaten Mucho Macho Man (12:1), and yet has higher odds… interesting.

Nehro | 8:1 – Made late charges at both the Arkansas & Louisiana Derbys and came up just a neck short in both. In pure gambling fun, isn’t it more of a thrill to have coin on a horse making a late charge than one that is holding a slight lead halfway through the race?

Twice the Appeal | 5:1 – Two words… Calvin. Borel.  “Bo-rail” has simply done work at Churchill Downs, jockeying three of the past four Derby winners. His horse is a slow one this year, but I just can’t recommend betting against him. Side note: odds were at 20:1 when I started drafting this post…

Derby Day Update… Race Matchups:

• Master of Hounds (+120) vs. Soldat
• Santiva (-110) vs. Stay Thirsty

Finally, if you’re standing around Saturday afternoon and can’t figure out how to dapper it up for your big Derby party, take advice from TDD reader and fellow blogger The Southern Prepster.

The only unfortunate part of the weekend is even if I hit a bet(s), I won’t be able to celebrate in quite the style I did last year:

Vegas Knows Better Than You

Lakers/Mavs under 188:  This line started at 180 and has moved all the way to 188.  I trust those guys in Vegas more than the general public, so I’m taking the under.

Running the Green Mile

A stacked field heads to the QC this weekend for the Wachovia Wells Fargo Championship at classic Quail Hollow.  Almost half of the world’s top 50 golfers will be teeing it up, and they can expect a tough grind from the start. However, the true test comes in the final three holes, which have played the toughest on tour for the past five years in non-majors. Without further ado, here are my picks to win:

• Phil Mickelson | 10:1 – Very similar to the Luke Donald pick at Harbour Town, except Lefty’s record is even better. Six top 12 finishes in his seven starts here, with a P2 last time around.
• Jim Furyk | 25:1 – He was right there on HHI until the 14th hole on Sunday, and has been playing real well as of late. Winner here in ’06, and a T7 last season.
• Ricky Barnes | 50:1 – Long shot pick of the week. Common knowledge at this point that he plays well on tough courses, and Quail Hollow is no exception. T4 finish in his last start at Harbour Town, and was in the hunt down the stretch. T22 here last year.

Tournament Matchups & Finishing Position

• Brendon de Jonge (-125) vs. Jacobson – Charlotte resident spends a ton of time at Quail Hollow and had a T4 here last year.
• Jim Furyk (even) vs. Watney – Given the evidence above, I like the value with Furyk as an underdog. Watney will be right there with a potential top 20, but is a little off his game since an en fuego start to the season.
• Phil Mickelson | Under 15.5 – Lock city.

Round 2 Rebound

After a brief hiatus to finish up law school, I’m ready to devote more time to gambling and less time to studying for the bar exam.  Round 1 kicked my ass, but my Thunder-Heat Finals prediction is still alive and looking strong.  Time to start round 2.

The Kirk Hinrich injury will hurt the Hawks as Jeff Teague (total of 9 minutes played in round 1) will be required to keep Derrick Rose in check.  Good luck with that.  Add in the fact that the Bulls are rested and this series may be over in 5 games.  Bulls (-8.5).

As for other series predictions: Lakers over Mavs in 6.  Thunder over Grizzlies in 6.  Heat over Celtics in 7.